🚀 What’s New This Week
Don’t wait for Q4 to test Q4.
It may still be 104° in some parts of the country, but don’t be fooled — those Pumpkin Spice Lattes will be obnoxiously beckoning before you know it. Which is a good reminder that Black Friday is November 27. If that feels far away, it isn’t.
Peak season is when every platform looks like a genius: spend goes up, conversion rates go up, and every dashboard you own reports a stellar quarter. Attribution gets distorted when the stakes are the absolute highest, and the tool that cuts through it — an incrementality test — is one thing you can't spin up in November.
So the honest answer to "when should I test?" is: yesterday.
Why the calendar is tighter than it looks
A well-powered incrementality test isn't a weekend project. Between design, the live test window, and the cooldown period, you're looking at a multi-week commitment to get a conclusive result. Count backward from Black Friday and you’ll realize we’re actually in the last comfortable window to test.
Timeline is for illustrative purposes only; exact timing is based on individual test design.
How seasonality affects testing
If 75–80% of your annual media spend happens between September and December, that concentration limits what you can reliably test during peak season. It's not a dealbreaker—but it does require planning. The best incrementality tests are designed well before peak, giving you enough time to establish a baseline and measure results with confidence.
Where to start
Choose one marketing channel you'd like to validate before peak season begins. Even if you have a general sense of the revenue it's driving, an incrementality test gives you the evidence to understand its true contribution. Those insights make budget allocation easier and give you a confident, data-backed answer when leadership asks, "Are we sure this is the right split?"
If you’re a current Northbeam Incrementality customer, see what tests are available in your dashboard by clicking on the Incrementality section in the left-hand nav. Or just reach out to your Northbeam rep.
🔁 ICYMI
Amazon new vs. returning is back for FBA orders
Speaking of BFCM — in February, an Amazon API change suspended our ability to tell a new customer from a returning one for Fulfilled by Amazon orders. Those orders landed in an Unknown stage (still counted in your totals, but pulled out of every new vs. returning breakdown).
That's now fixed, so FBA orders classify as new or returning again.
Two caveats worth knowing:
Expect a few days of lag. The email only becomes available after the order ships, so recent orders will fill in behind you.
Cancelled orders won't have one, and merchant-fulfilled Amazon orders still can’t be broken out by new vs. returning.
📈 Optimization Corner
Your scaling KPI should be a new-customer ROAS or a new-customer CAC target — not a blended target. A blended target just hides where efficiency really lies: you end up increasing budget when in reality you're just getting returning customers coming back."
🤑 Ad Credit Offers
We've partner with ad platforms to get these exclusive credit offers for Northbeam customers. To claim an offer, reach out to [email protected].
